When is the bubble gonna burst?

How are you going to say any price related to beer is gouging?

 

How many restaurants are there in the United States? How many Thai restaurants, Mexican restaurants, sushi restaurants, steakhouses, burger joints, seafood restaurants, barbecue joints, brunch places etc.? And the vast majority of them serve reasonably comparable versions of the food within their "style." Yet nobody is saying that the restaurant market is oversaturated, or that there is a "bubble." If so many restaurants can sustain themselves and stay in business, they are doing something right. How is this different from breweries?

 

The number of brands/shops selling a given product does not signify whether or not there is a bubble (but others seem to think that). It doesn't matter if it is 2,000 or 20. If so, why isn't there talk of a coffee bubble? Or a pizza bubble (thanks Pahn!)?

 

Sure, so it's just a matter of proportion. But it's still just a supply/demand equation, and as long as demand is strong and still growing (which it appears to be) it can support increasing supply.

My point was in response to OP's complaint that a lot of the beer out there tastes the same. Well, how is that different from any other industry where a lot of companies are producing pretty similar goods and services? It's just a sign that the market has matured. If people expect breweries to continually create completely new beers, styles, and brewing techniques, they are just being unrealistic.

 

Because good wine costs even more and doesn't taste as good (to me).

That may seem facetious of me, but I don't think it really is. Beer costs what it costs. Either you pay it or you don't, and people are paying it.

 

So, are you stranded on a desert island and the only beverage available is from a brewer who is asking $100 a beer? No? Then quit making silly statements.

price gouging - pricing above the market when no alternative retailer is available

 

Mm, I'm going to have to disagree and go with 11/4/2027. You start your craft beer apocalypse cult and I'll start mine...

 

The craft beer scene is relatively small in the whole scheme of things, I agree with you there. But in the last 15 years, the percentage of craft beer sales have more than tripled, taking away customers from Anheuser-Busch and similar producers. In other words, the customer base for craft beer is growing too, stabilizing the base for more breweries to be established.

Regarding the comparison between cola and pale ale, there could be politics involved which make it easier/harder to grow said beverage brands, buyouts (Guinness would buy out a number of stout producers in Ireland to maintain its throne), changes in consumer taste, propaganda, and other reasons which I haven't touched.

 

I strongly disagree with this. 2/17/2023??? It is obviously going to be 1/24/2023. There's no question.

 

This man is the worst heretic of them all.

 

I must admit, I was excited when the last new brewery I visited (JAFB) had only 5 IPA on draft out of 15. Such great variety, it was so nice. And the other styles done very well... From cream ales, porters, stouts, strong ale, red ale, wit, table bier, saison, etc...

I am all for more variety and less IPA's! I love them, but I am sick of so many of the same style.

 

when people decide that the market price wont bare the cost.

Those prices are the going rate in places like DC, NYC, and to some degree Philly.

 

I don't think the bubble will ever burst. So there are 1000 IPA'S on the market..just means more options..
Have you ever heard anyone say there are too many Chinese restaurants or pizza places? No..same goes for beer..will alwsys be a market for every style that's brewed. Just drink and enjoy and don't overanalyze..now back to my BA Dark Apparition...Cheers!

 

I would think its not so much a bubble as oversaturation. If you're in it, established and have nice margins / adequate volumes you're fine. I think if you're trying to break in at this point, you're late to the party. If it was me and believed in craft beer growth economics I'd be more looking to open a bottle shop or hop farm rather than a brewery. Its much easier for an established brewery to scale to grab growth than a new entrant.

 

If there were as many pizza places as brands of beer available, most of the pizza places wouldn't stay in business.

However, I agree that the bubble isn't going to "burst." I wouldn't be surprised if some of the crappy-to-mediocre breweries have a hard time staying in business 10+ years down the line when the idea of good beer being something different than BMC isn't as much of a novelty anymore. I can see the people who really like beer seeking out the better breweries (the lesser operations will have to improve product or risk failing), while others move back to BMC or on to whatever the next alcoholic beverage fad happens to be.

It won't be impossible to start up a brewery or anything, though I'd guess it'll be a lot tougher to be successful than it is today, while several operations open today probably won't be in 10 years.

 

Oh no $14 a four pack? If that is out of hand you will hate buying beer north of the border.

While i agree that some aspects of the Beer World (IPA) maybe becoming too plentiful; what balances things out is quality over quantity. Let the cream rise to the top.

Every market could probably stand a few more quality breweries.

 

Thanks, and I agree. "Craft" beer's popularity will level off at some point (maybe even regress a bit), IMO. However, it's not going to revert back to BMC dominating like 30 years ago or anything.

I really hope it's rum or gin. I don't like rum; hipsters can drive its prices up all they want.

All I want is bourbon not to be $50 minimum for a bottle that wasn't made in a bathtub and to be able to find Bourbon County without pitching a tent on Thanksgiving night.