Wolves & People

@John_M

I think perhaps you and others are looking at the price of this "club" in a skewed manner. Let's say for instance, this brewery had been open for a while now...it'd be easier to ascertain what kind of value you were getting. However...this is a kick starter...and I'm going to wager that a % of the price being charged doesn't represent what they're trying to get for the beer. They're attempting to raise capital to fund this venture. They want to collect more than simply what could be considered reasonable to cover the cost of the beer itself. These kickstarters are an investment whereby your initial investment grants both a short and long term return. In the short term, what you invest may not necessarily yield a material return that's equal $ for $ what you've put in. In the long run, you get an continued access to the brand and exclusive brews...no muss...no fuss. It's an investment in more than just the beers you're receiving, in short.

As far as hassles...no club is without them. Bruery's had issues with infections, Cigar City's had issues with their website when trying to acquire bottles, Wakefield's simply taken forever and a day to get into the swing of things. Experienced breweres/breweries and new ones alike..certain things arise that can't be foreseen, and they sometimes suck. Sometimes more than others. You seem to have a good head on your shoulders, so I'm interested in hearing more about your opinion in regards to them "hedging their bets."

I'll also concede that while past results don't guarantee future results...the fact that it proves you know what the hell you're doing, goes a long way to inspire confidence whereas some no name arriving on the scene soliciting funds to start up his/her first endeavor would come off as alarming. Tired Hands is going to be opening a new brewery after being open for about 2 1/2 years. A guy with experience, opening a new facility, doing more of what he's been doing successfully since he arrived on the scene. Would you personally see risk in investing money in a similar club to what Wolves & People are offering, if Tired Hands were doing it to help raise funds for the new facility?

I guess some people don't fundamentally like to invest their money in something until it's already been proven successful. But most places don't even have the chance to become successful if others aren't there to invest int he potential of them becoming successful.

 

There's no telling at what point their beer will be ready to be distributed. I get the impression that signing on early with Shelton Brothers simply helped infuse some funds at an early stage where they're immediately needed. I anticipate that it's going to be very difficult for anyone that's not local to procure this breweries beer at the onset. Further, there's nothing to prevent locals from being those that invest in their kickstarter, and thus have guaranteed access to the beer. Right now they're looking for investors. That's what kickstarting is. And, I'm sure they don't care where the funds come from.

To me...someone from Hawaii or Connecticut that believes in my idea...that believes in me....is as good or better than anyone locally that doesn't. At any rate....with competition being so stiff in Oregon, especially when you're new and everyone else is established, perhaps tapping other markets that may be receptive of your product from the onset may be more beneficial than attempting to solely cut your teeth and survive in a local market that, as this thread proves, is beyond skeptical, jaded, and flooded with world class options that people are more than happy point out to you.

 

the use of the word "investing" is appalling. you're not "investing" anything. you're providing capital under a good faith agreement that you may receive some above average beverages in the future. that's it. if they happen to be world-class beers in the future, that's great, but that's purely speculative, and the first rule of "investing" is don't speculate.

 

And there's the rub: if you're in an area without an embarrassment of riches, beer-wise, such an investment and willingness to pay above and beyond the presumed value of the beer seems more necessary/reasonable than when you live where excellent beer is so readily available. Oregon has excellent breweries who got where they are by starting small and growing organically. Nothing inherently wrong with wanting to start fully funded and not having to compromise, but perhaps to many of us locally we don't see the same value in financing an unproven product when so many others did prove it first.

 

I've been really trying to understand your motivations in dropping in here and extensively lecturing the locals about, well, just about everything. Is this the root of it?

Are you afraid that your "investment" is going to prove worthless if you don't convince all of us that we should also sign up? Otherwise, I really don't see why you care so much. Some people obviously think this is a worthwhile thing to support and have put up their money. Some people are on the fence or feel that it's overpriced and aren't signing up. And that ought to be okay, right? Why is is such a big deal to you that some people disagree with you that you're spending so much time writing so much trying to explain to us why we're wrong?

 

Interesting read that people would fuss so much over a crowd funding endeavor by brewery that's been so successful. Who knew people were so skeptical...even of places with a history of success (Stone).

Yeah...there's always an element of gambling when you invest money. Doesn't matter whether it's via the stock market, a kickstarter, or a hand of poker. I think a lot of people who invest in beer related kickstarters are adverse to risk and don't realize when they get involved with these, that there's a certain amount associated with their investment.

 

You're welcome to have your opinions about a market you know only from a subsection of beer geeks on a niche website, but understand that your posts "prove" to me and maybe others that if the beer bubble is building for an eventual burst, it's going to come from East Coasters who can't stop raving about the emperor's new clothes.

 

Personally, I think this is one of the better threads we've had in a while, and Snowshoes gets a lot of the credit for that. It's nice to get a different pair of eyes on things. Cheers all!

 

Indeed this is why I would say not so much that Oregon is "spoiled", but that we live in a mature marketplace where supply meets demand and as a result prices have stabilized. Craft beer in Portland is, more or less, commoditized. There's so many options that, other than the dedicated tickers, people don't flock to every new establishment that opens up. But, it's incorrect, IMO, to act like this is the anomalous place where market forces are somehow not functioning properly. In fact, it's exactly the opposite; the places where demand vastly outstrips supply are where simple equilibrium economic theory doesn't apply, leading to an upward spiral of pricing.

 

Yeah...I hear you. But anymore, sometimes the landscape doesn't permit you the luxury of enduring growing pains. Especially in a brutally competitive market. Sometimes you need to hit the ground running, or at least a steady gait. It'll be interesting to see where this heads, and how perceptions change or are affirmed. All I know is this...not one brewery in Oregon or elsewhere would have gotten where they are if someone didn't believe in them from the earliest stages of their idea. Friends, family, whomever. People make investments of time, money, emotion, and a number of other things which all have value to those that made the investment. The difference between crowd funding and the "old school" method of soliciting support (financially or otherwise) is that today you have a much larger pool of enthusiastic people that are eager to invest in an idea with what they readily admit is a set, and often fairly limited return. Not everyone's on board with the idea...but it's a fun new way to invest/donate money that you've deemed disposable.

 

It's appalling? Well I apologize for appalling you. I see investing as expending money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial schemes, shares, or property, or by using it to develop a commercial venture. I'm giving money and expecting a material result. Perhaps my expectation is appalling. lol

And whether the first rule of investing is to not speculate, or not, it doesn't mean it doesn't occur. Speculative investing occurs all the time. Right, wrong, or indifferent.

 

Well, and I'm just guessing here, I suspect they've gotten very favorable terms on their physical location. They've bought a brewhouse, and are working on the facility, so they are old-schooling it to a certain degree. And, maybe, the crowdsourcing money that's going to them, isn't going to some other experienced brewery, who would like to leave his current boss, and open his own shop. Should someone with some built in advantages be taking that money away from someone who is going to need every dollar?

As mentioned in that Fortune link, people were pissed at Stone, because, here is an established, profitable, well-regarded company, looking to expend on the backs of the "common folk", instead of spending their own coin. Anybody who starts small, and grows, is going to need help. There are multiple ways to get that help. I doubt Stone would have been turned down for a bank loan, but they chose to try to not have to pay interest. Some little guy (brewery or not) didn't meet his goal because Stone "took" his dollars. I have no clue about WPs background and financials, nor am I interested in them. But this age of begging does leave a bit of a sour taste in my mouth. At least when you asked Don Vito Corleone for a loan, you could be sure nobody was going to interfere with your business. As long as you were paying the vig.

 

Well the cellar club is now closed. I'll sell my membership for $450

 

Firstly, I didn't have any motivation other than to simply bullshit about beer and a new brewery. If you feel I'm lecturing, I apologize, it's not my intention. I haven't said a single thing with that in mind. Secondly, I'm not afraid in my investment in it at all. I'm buying beer. I'm going to consume it and share it with others. There's no way possible that'll ever be worthless. As to whether or not anyone else signs up, I couldn't possibly care less. If you think otherwise, you're mistaken. And you say you really don't see why I care so much? I say you really don't see. I don't care at all. I'm just having conversation, bud. And I totally agree that some people find value, and some don't. It's like, I dunno, pretty much everything in life. I respect that there are people on both sides of the equation, and obviously you do too. I think you're under the impression that I care if people disagree with me...and I just do not. Lastly...I'm not at all trying to explain why you or anyone else is wrong.

If you or anyone else would like me to cease participating in this thread or further, stay out of the threads in your region, just say so and I'll depart. I'd hate to to think I'm imposing or otherwise creating unrest around here.

 

lol Awesome.

 

Nah, come back more often. Sometimes gets a bit "inbred" 'round these parts.

 

Fair enough... Again...usually when I talk about Oregon breweries, I'm doing it with people from out here. The knowledge base is a bit different in that regard.

Fully understand the rest of what you're saying.

At any rate, think I'll bow out of this one, and peruse some other forums. Good luck to the brewery, and I hope you guys have another locale out your way to be proud of. Take it easy, gentlemen.

 

i said it was appalling, not appalling to me. i could care less how others spend their money, but the way you refer to joining a paid membership club that exchanges bottles for your currency is not investing. i exchanged a lot less currency for a lot more beer in the past few months... i guess i'm just a lot better at this "investing" thing than you are.

 

Appalling to some hypothetical "not you" human?

It's sort of semantics here ... but when you go to a store and buy, that's commerce, not investment. In finance, an investment is an asset purchased with the idea (hope, pray) that the asset will provide income in the future or appreciate and possibly be sold at a higher price. When you buy a bottle of enjoy by, there's no idea that you won't consume it soon and will hold onto it for it to appreciate. Right now, Wolves and People beer is vaporware. If it's not good to decent, it won't be worth what he (I) paid. If it's decent to good, it might be worth what we paid. If it's amazing, a la Lily or La Tache with Peaches, it may be worth more than we paid. If they never make beer and go belly up, we're out.

Sounds kinda like "investment" to me.