Averagely Perfect American Brown Ale - Poll #2 - Final Gravity

Discussion in 'Homebrewing' started by VikeMan, Mar 10, 2019.

?

What should the target Final Gravity be?

Poll closed Mar 12, 2019.
  1. 1.009 (with OG of 1.052)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 1.010 (with OG of 1.053)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 1.011 (with OG of 1.054)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 1.012 (with OG of 1.055)

    38.1%
  5. 1.013 (with OG of 1.056)

    11.9%
  6. 1.014 (with OG of 1.057)

    38.1%
  7. 1.015 (with OG of 1.058)

    7.1%
  8. 1.016 (with OG of 1.059)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 1.017 (with OG of 1.060)

    4.8%
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  1. VikeMan

    VikeMan Grand Pooh-Bah (3,067) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah

    -> Poll #1 <- determined that the ABV target will be 5.6%.

    This poll will determine the target Final Gravity, as well as the target Original gravity.

    I suggest thinking about residual sweetness, body, and mouthfeel. Even though there is no (group) grain bill context yet, there may be one in your head.

    Here is the formula I used to determine the potential FG/OG pairs.
    ABV = 131.25 x (OG - FG)
    There are formulae that would give slightly different answers. This is the one I used.

    This poll will be open for 48 hours.

    When this poll is done, I will look at the data a few different ways to determine if there is a central tendency. It may or may not be as simple as a plurality would indicate. There may or may not be a runoff(s). It all depends on the data.

    If you have issues with or suggestions for methodologies used in this project, please send them via beermail. Let's keep the threads themselves on topic to the question at hand and not about how you would have asked the question differently.

    The Averagely Perfect American Brown Ale Recipe so far...

    Target ABV: 5.6%
    OG: TBD (this poll)
    FG: TBD (this poll)
     
  2. GormBrewhouse

    GormBrewhouse Pooh-Bah (2,111) Jun 24, 2015 Vermont
    Pooh-Bah

    I voted 1.015. Should give the sweet and feel I like in a brown without being too thin.
     
    dmtaylor likes this.
  3. Silver_Is_Money

    Silver_Is_Money Devotee (337) Jun 4, 2017 Ohio

    Perhaps apparent attenuation should have been voted on first. The attenuations as seen within the voting choices presented to us via this poll seem almost lager yeast high to me.
     
  4. VikeMan

    VikeMan Grand Pooh-Bah (3,067) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah

    I will answer this two ways.

    1) If you are having remorse about 5.6% ABV, seek support from your fellow BAs for a buyer's remorse poll.

    2)
     
    chavinparty and NiceFly like this.
  5. SFACRKnight

    SFACRKnight Grand Pooh-Bah (3,348) Jan 20, 2012 Colorado
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    I'm afraid that using 1056 I will surpass these attenuation predictions.
     
  6. NiceFly

    NiceFly Initiate (0) Dec 22, 2011 Tajikistan

    I voted 12. That is 78% attenuation. Well within reach. I did not realize we voted on yeast yet.

    I would say the water profile is more important but again getting ahead of ourselves.

    Also, as of this post the data curve is pretty interesting if you plot gravity on x and votes on y. Looks like a wedding night dick after you cross the threshold.

    Sorry mods.
     
    SFACRKnight likes this.
  7. Silver_Is_Money

    Silver_Is_Money Devotee (337) Jun 4, 2017 Ohio

    I also voted for 1.012. I changed it from an earlier 1.013 vote.
     
  8. jbakajust1

    jbakajust1 Pooh-Bah (2,552) Aug 25, 2009 Oregon
    Pooh-Bah

    Who said anything about using 1056?
     
    SFACRKnight likes this.
  9. GormBrewhouse

    GormBrewhouse Pooh-Bah (2,111) Jun 24, 2015 Vermont
    Pooh-Bah

  10. SFACRKnight

    SFACRKnight Grand Pooh-Bah (3,348) Jan 20, 2012 Colorado
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    Since it's an American brown ale I simply assumed a neutral American yeast. :wink:
     
  11. jbakajust1

    jbakajust1 Pooh-Bah (2,552) Aug 25, 2009 Oregon
    Pooh-Bah

    I'm hoping for West Yorkshire.
     
    Granitebeard likes this.
  12. pweis909

    pweis909 Grand Pooh-Bah (3,250) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Pooh-Bah

    Seems a bit premature to be worried about this. We haven't tried to address the various dials that influence attenuation. Yeast selection is just one of them.
     
  13. Arturo2

    Arturo2 Initiate (0) Jan 6, 2019 Oregon

    If this heads in a hoppy direction I’d like to see WLP028 as a yeast option. You can hop the heck out of it you want but it leaves plenty of malt behind. Very versatile and I think a strong candidate for a brown, hoppy or not.
     
  14. FeDUBBELFIST

    FeDUBBELFIST Pooh-Bah (1,765) Oct 31, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah

    Just jumped on the 1.014 bandwagon. 1.012 seems to dry for me
     
    SFACRKnight likes this.
  15. MrOH

    MrOH Grand Pooh-Bah (3,995) Jul 5, 2010 Virginia
    BA4LYFE Society Pooh-Bah

    Changed my vote to 1.017 from 1.015 in the hopes to skew the results towards 1.014-15
     
  16. minderbender

    minderbender Initiate (0) Jan 18, 2009 New York

    So, you know, not a big deal, but I do think the process works better if people vote their true preferences. (This doesn't apply to a plurality-wins poll, where strategic voting is baked into the cake.) First, what is VikeMan supposed to do with a vote like this? It amounts to making an especially emphatic vote, one that counts more than other votes. If the scale went high enough, and VikeMan took the votes at face value, then the last person to vote could effectively cast the only vote that matters, by voting arbitrarily high. (I guess there's a limit to how far down the last voter could push the results.) Of course VikeMan might respond by excluding outliers, but that's a little unfair to true outliers (that is, people who are voting extreme values because of a sincere desire to implement then). I guess in a sense if you're going to do it, it helps to say so in the thread so VikeMan knows what he's dealing with.

    Second, it risks an arms race where the people who prefer 1.012 respond by lowering their votes to balance it out. Then you could get a false bimodal pattern where people are voting extreme values even though the actual disputed territory is only a few gravity points.

    (Any resemblance to the U.S. political system is purely coincidental.)

    So anyway I think it's probably better on the whole if people vote their true preferences and bow to the will of the majority (again, excluding plurality-wins polls).
     
  17. VikeMan

    VikeMan Grand Pooh-Bah (3,067) Jul 12, 2009 Pennsylvania
    Pooh-Bah

    Since @MrOH and @minderbender raised the issue, I'll add that it's no secret (I've mentioned it a few times in the past) that I do detect and discard outliers, using a fairly common stats method.
     
  18. Granitebeard

    Granitebeard Zealot (549) Aug 24, 2016 Maine

    Or you can just vote in Maine where they made sure second place will win...
     
  19. wasatchback

    wasatchback Pooh-Bah (1,574) Jan 12, 2014 Tajikistan
    Pooh-Bah Trader

    1.014
     
    skleice likes this.
  20. pweis909

    pweis909 Grand Pooh-Bah (3,250) Aug 13, 2005 Wisconsin
    Pooh-Bah

    Well, it's looking pretty bimodal right now, with 2 points separating the modes. I'm skeptical that I would notice a difference.
     
    chavinparty, SFACRKnight and Buck89 like this.
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