Mid-Atlantic breweries in planning (2020)

PA has more than 75 pending, probably about half of them expected within the next 6 months. Easiest way to do it is just head to https://www.pabrewreview.com/BreweryMap and use the filter to select only Pending breweries.

 

Do you happen to know how many PA breweries closed in 2019?

In a thread about brewery closings I posted:

What about brewery closings? How many PA breweries closed in 2019?

I took note from the article We Spoke With 16 PA Brewers: What Will Be The Biggest Craft Beer Trends in 2020?:

“A lot of craft breweries will be closing…” – Sam Masotto, Co-Owner/Head Brewer, Bonn Place Brewing, Bethlehem, PA”

https://www.breweriesinpa.com/we-sp...ill-be-the-biggest-craft-beer-trends-in-2020/

Are you personally expecting that the number of PA craft breweries closing in 2020, as compared to 2019, will be a greater number?

Cheers!

 

Unfortunately, Sam is probably right. Haven't run the full year numbers yet (probably this weekend), but 5 brewery locations closed in December alone: Race Street Brew Works, Aston Abbey Brewing, Bangor Trust Brewing, Bucks County Brewing, and Appalachian Brewing - West Chester. Typically we've been seeing 5-10 closures per year over the last few years. It makes sense that December would see a slight bump, since licenses expire at year end. But still, that number raises an eyebrow.

There are some caveats:
Aston Abbey owner says that they are closing due to health issues
Bangor Trust is trying to reopen after being denied for a loan; they seem optimistic
Bucks County has said they are closed temporarily (but radio silence for 2 weeks and they asked gift card holders to email them directly)

Time will tell, but it appears that banks are less willing to lend freely in the industry compared to the last 5 years. And that's with the economy doing well. If there were to be any sort of recession, seems clear that there'd be a shakeout.

Also consider that existing PA breweries are continuing to expand at an increasing rate (with the exception of Appalachian, which has now closed 2 locations in the last 2 years). The regional distribution brewery may be all but dead, but the multi-taproom statewide brewery seems to be taking its place. (Sly Fox is the best example of this, though there are many that fit the bill).

 

Because the landscape of beer competition is so great (and weekly increasing)?

Would you be willing to invest in a brand new brewery start-up now?

Cheers!

 

Presumably the banks are looking at trends among the larger breweries which are mostly in contraction, and making the assumption that the same headwinds apply to micro craft breweries. It's not the most nuanced comparison, but banks might not be willing to dig into local or state by state factors. There's also the likelihood that some of the banks have been burned by underprepared breweries that defaulted, and are getting a bit gun shy.

Investing in a brand new brewery start-up now can still be a good idea. But it's no longer enough to have good beer. If a brewery is just interested in making good beer and not focusing on customer experience and keeping up with the changing industry, they'll be on thin ice. A dynamic brewer in a good location with a willingness to work hard and adapt will still be successful. Can Phoenixville support another brewery? Odds are against it. But there are still plenty of neighborhoods in Philadelphia that could definitely support one, if done right.

 

I would have answered no even before the latest brewery opened but what the heck do I know - Phoenixville has a growing population with all of the latest (and continuing) residential construction. And anecdotally the vast majority of the new residents are of the 'partying' demographic.

There may be some examples of how to make an 'easy' decision to where to open a new brewery/brewpub (e.g., a gentrifying neighborhood in Philly that is presently under-served). But even there how does that business factor in the business landscape a few years down the road when their competition arrives?

It will be interesting to learn when you run the numbers for closures in 2019 (this weekend?) and track that value with what occurs in 2020.

Cheers!

 

Maryland updates:

1) Ministry of Brewing (Baltimore)- should be open any day now.
2) Double Groove Brewing (Forest Hill)- should be pouring on January 22
3) Bog Turtle Brewery (Rising Sun)- defunct PA brewery, reopening in Maryland, should be open by the end of January
4) 1623 Brewing (Eldersburg)- should be open in February
5) Flood Zone Marketplace & Brewery (Union Bridge)- just waiting on their brewing license
6) Ten Eyck Brewing (Queenstown)- should be open in 2-3 months, still under construction
7) Pipe the Side Brewing (Hampstead)- have all their licenses except the building permit... should be ready in the Spring
8) Big Truck Farm Brewery (Parkton)- slated to be open in May
9) Conowingo Brewing (Conowingo)- should be open in the spring
10) Locust Post Brewery (Little Orleans)- under construction
11) Burnish Beer Co. (Salisbury)- pre-construction, a 2020 opening is still the plan
12) Gateway Craft Brewing (Salisbury)- under construction
13) Sombronkey (White Marsh)- farm brewery, licensed, should be open in the spring
14) Selva (Gaithersburg)- on tap at Sardi's, renovating East Diamond's old taproom
15) Brawling Bear (Gaithersburg)- allegedly going to open a brewery at some point

 

Looks like cold, hard numbers might rein in the "chicken little" frame of mind:

2018
Total brewery locations closed: 14
Closed in December: 4
*2 were contractions - a brewery closed a location but still had other locations open

2019
Total brewery locations closed: 12
Closed in December: 5
*4 were contractions - a brewery closed a location but still had other locations open

So taking into account the fact that 2019 had many more PA brewery locations than 2018: the relative rate of closures, as a percentage of overall brewery locations, was about 50% higher in 2018 than 2019.

Still can't say that it completely kicks the feeling of concern for 2020, but it certainly tempers it!

 

Facts are indeed the best!

Thank you for taking the time to do that accounting and posting the results.

I really do not know what 2020 will bring (a fact: nobody does). I suppose we will know more, with your help, on January 2, 2021.

Cheers!

 

I have high hopes for Warbler, as the brewer did great things when he was at Robin Hood - really brought the State College, PA brewery into the 21st century with some tasty sours, solid NEIPAs, and delicious barrel-aged brews

 

Never been to Lolita's (it used to be Crave) but the sandwich shop right next door, Lola's, is incredible. Owned by the same people. I used to live in one of the apartments right above it and would go more than I care to admit. I still dream about some of the sandwiches.

 

Really looking forward to this one. My wife & I live in Albany, and have a camp on Lake Algonquin, in Town of Wells, Hamilton County, in the Adirondacks. We pass the location on our way up Route 30... it will be great to be able to fill our growler on our way up to the lake.

 

Alternate Ending Beer Co. From a former Other Half brewer. Opening in central Jersey sometime next year.

 

These are ones to which I'm looking forward:

Glenbrook Brewing, Morristown, NJ. http://www.glenbrookbrewery.com/welome.html
Lion's Roar Brewing, Westfield, NJ. https://www.facebook.com/LionsRoarBrew/
Bull and Bear Brewery, Summit, NJ. https://www.bullnbearbrewery.com/